How the SEC Dodged Its Own Bullet:

Why 8>9 in SEC Football

Intercollegiate athletics are going through some major changes, and it appears to be for the worst.  Super Conferences seem inevitable; however, the SEC seems concrete - thanks to its leader, Commissioner Mike Slive.  The SEC would add Missouri and Texas A&M, split them up in the East and West divisions (in sports like football) or throw them in the mix (like basketball) and just invade TV markets -- no short of New Mexico.

Early in the year, Slive made it clear that the sport schedules for 2012-13 would be the schedules only for that season. So, we now have 14 teams. Fourteen is a weird number.  The first thing that popped in my head is: what will the schedule look like? There were already rumblings of discrepancies. Are rivalries going to be harmed? How is traveling going to be handled? Will Georgia continue getting “these” schedules?  Then I heard the shocker: to make it fair maybe we should go to 9 SEC Conference games schedule in football.

Being an SEC fan, relief engulfed me when I discovered that there were eight SEC games scheduled from Alabama to Vandy.  Taking the homer glasses off, for the last six years the SEC has dominated the college football landscape. But each of the champions has had its share of close calls or even losses in the regular season.[1] Check the table below:

 Close Calls on the Road to BCS Title[2]

 

’06 Florida 13-1	L  @ Aub., 1pt. W v Tenn., 7pt.W v UGA, 6pt. W @ Vandy, 1pt. W v So. Car, 7pt. W @ FSU
’07 LSU    12-2	L (3OT) @ UK, L (3OT)v Ark, 6pt. W v Aub, 7 pt. W @ Bama
’08 Florida 13-1	L @ Ole Miss, 11 pt. Comeback W v Bama in SEC Champ.
’09 Alabama 14-0	2 pt. W v Tenn., 9 pt. W v LSU, 5 pt. W @ Aub
’10 Auburn 14-0	3pt. W @ Miss. St, OT W v. Clem, 8 pt. W v So. Car., 3pt. W @ UK, 7pt. W v LSU, Spotted UGA 24 pts before W, Comeback Game v. Bama
’11 Alabama 13-1	3 pt. L v. LSU

[3]

Sticking with eight is hard enough, so when the idea of the nine games reappeared this week, the issue became the subject of much debate.  All speculation was put to rest after the June 1 vote, which resulted in the approval of an eight game schedule.  Nonetheless, I had to write about what the SEC almost did; it almost relinquished its most treasured asset…all by adding one game to its SEC schedule.

6-1-1 or 8 games vs. 9 games

The most controversial issue for fans and others was whether or not the nine game schedule would be the best shot for keeping the out of state rivalry games; however, the eight game schedule keeps the rivalries.[4]  My initial thought for dealing with the two new teams was to make the them, Missouri and Texas A&M, partners/rivals.  In football, these two teams have provided a competitive game the last couple of years; besides, they would provide a natural familiar face for each other.  Instead, the SEC assigned Arkansas and Missouri which is great, given its close proximity and basketball history.  Similarly, the assignment of South Carolina with Texas A&M could be interesting; their similarities/ties include maroon colors. 

The Biggest Gripe I’ve been hearing has come from LSU.  Their AD thinks it is unfair because their partner is Florida every year in football. So LSU, recently, has had its own personal round robin with national champions.  Apparently, he fails to realize that the only possible partners they could have are Mizzou, Carolina or Kentucky as every other opponent has a legit rival.  Also, fans love this game now.  It is generally a top-25 matchup and is often the CBS game of the week, if not night game of the year. He has just got to man-up. Clearly, he is not aware of the Alabama/Tennessee rivalry…especially between the 10 year span of 1989-99.  There was a ranked team in the game every year, and both teams were ranked 7 out of the 11 times, even as Bama was on probation. All seven times both teams were in the top 15…and this is a real rivalry. It happens, man. 

SEC Championship Game Surprise

By staying with the eight game schedule, the SEC helps keep the mystique of the SEC Championship game.  In its 19 year history at Legion Field in Birmingham, AL there has been only a rematch 6 times showing the parody of the league.  Other conferences lack that. The Big Ten’s first year was a rematch, and the PAC-12’s first year would have been a rematch if USC was not on probation.  Instead, Oregon got UCLA, who ended up 6-8.  The SEC championship has had a top 25 matchup every year and six upsets according to the rankings.  By adding nine games, simple math tells me that it causes a greater probability of making a rematch[5]. Adding nine games ultimately ensures that an SEC team would face a tenth SEC opponent in the regular season, thereby making the schedule even tougher, which makes the probability of going unscathed or to the BCS title game even tougher.  What SEC fans don’t get (in my opinion) is that there will be no sympathy taken for an undefeated SEC title game loser because of many reasons, including the fear of what happened last year. Maybe, there would be some consideration in the playoff "Top 4 Method", but no way in the world in the BCS.

Cupcake City Goes National

My last point is that the “out of conference” schedule would take a major hit if the SEC joined the frenzy, that is, the nine game conference schedules.  In 2006, the PAC 12, back when they were the PAC 10, decided that their teams would play all the conferences’ teams.  Since spreading out to the South and North, they have kept the nine games, protecting ONLY the California schools. Therefore in theory, Oregon v. USC, a decent rivalry the last ten years, is not protected. The BIG12 plays nine conference games thanks to only having ten schools (Insert joke here). The ACC has approximately 200 schools they’ve added and 200 schools looking to leave. Currently you play the six in your division and three in the other with one of those three being protected. The BIG10 is moving to nine in 2017. 

Of all conferences, the SEC and ACC generally schedule the toughest out of conference games as a conference. One of the better seasons I can remember (OOC) for a conference was the SEC’s 2009-10 season.  There was Bama/VT, UGA/GT, So.Car/Clem, Miss.St./Hou., Miss.St/GT, UGA/Ok.St, Aub/West Va., all ranked matchups.  You may have your Ohio St., Oklahoma, or Oregon programs that travel out, helping their own prestige, but not as a conference making the commissioner papa proud.  By adding nine games, The SEC would move to cupcake city too…if they were smart. 

The SEC has the highest Non-League Power Rating since 05-06, while having the toughest strength of schedule four of those six years as a conference.[6] Why would I schedule Boise when I have a nine game SEC schedule, especially when it is conceivable that all nine teams could be ranked?  Back when the conference consisted of 12 schools, the SEC had an average of nine teams to get into bowls, higher than any other conference in the last five years.  The conference as a whole has only dipped below a .600 winning percentage twice since the 2005-06 season.  If a team replaces a cupcake or a program altering game with a SEC team in the regular season, it reduces its chances for a win and could lower the leagues’ chance of making more money at a bowl. Personally, I don’t blame the ADs. I think it is a direct correlation that Ohio St., the BIG10 strongest scheduler, has already backed out of playing Georgia and Tennessee since the BIG10 has announced they were headed to nine games in 2012. USC, generally the PAC12 toughest scheduler, moved to cupcake city in 2011 when the PAC12 kept the nine games and added the championship game. Their toughest OOC game looks to be Texas A&M in 2015.[7]

For the last two years, the college football landscape has been moving and shaking all around the SEC.  But by keeping a 12 game schedule, while leaving the leagues’ games at eight instead of nine, the SEC still has the best shot to run for the title.    

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[1] I count Conference Championship games as the regular season because they are. You lose the game; it affects where you play in the post season.

[2] I consider close games as 10 points or fewer or if the score is not indicative of the game, and I actually watched it. I could have added the Arkansas game as well but you get the drift about the special 2010 Auburn season. Bold is an Out Of Conference game. As you can see, the biggest opponent to the BCS Title over the last 6 years of the SEC has been the SEC itself.

[3] The easiest argument to this is that SEC has a weak OOC - not the case. Keep reading.

[4] According to Clay Travis, Coaches Nick Saban, Derek Dooley, Gene Chiznik and Mark Richt favored the 9 game conference schedules. I’m not sure why Richt favors them, since UGA had the easiest SEC schedule possible in SEC history last year. Rumor has it nine games gives Dooley a better chance to beat someone other than Vandy and UK. It is important to note that Jesse Palmer wants nine games as well.

[5] Winning team in season matchup is 5-1 in the rematch of the SEC championship game. This includes the debacle that was Auburn/So.Car in 2010. I literally fell asleep in the 1^st half. My conference championship game theory:  the higher the rankings of both teams or if the teams have not seen each other all year = more intrigue. More intrigue = more viewers. More viewers = more money. And that’s the main focus right? The best example (ever) to illustrate this point: ’08 SEC Championship game: #1 Bama v. #2 UF who hadn’t seen each other since ’06.

[6] According to teamrankings.com

[7] I do not count the OOC rivalry games the fans would literally fight the AD if he removed off the schedule. Therefore with USC I’m not counting Notre Dame because it’s a giving those two are going to play, especially with ND being in the wilderness without a conference