We Want Bama...Twice? Two Iron Bowls could be Perfect Ending to the ridiculous BCS System

I know that there is too much season left in the year, but if you did not have "SEC Fatigue" already imagine this scenario; The BCS Championship not only never leaving the state of Alabama for five years straight, but the two teams, from the same state, same conference, same division, playing for the belt at the end of the last BCS year in January. Danny Kanell would have a conniption. Is it plausible? Sure. Could it happen? Who knows? Lets just play it out...

First: We have to assume Auburn wins out. Sweep two of the south oldest rivalries. 3-0 in the SEC down the stretch. Auburn has not won three consecutive SEC games in a row since the 2010 National Title Season; and we all know how crazy of a ride that was. But Just play the game with me here.

Second: Alabama goes 3-1 down the stretch including beating LSU on Saturday. LSU has won last 6 of 8 in Tuscaloosa, including the last one in 2011.  So if LSU blows it by beating Bama in Tuscaloosa The Iron Bowl loss would give Bama its second loss in four weeks. We can kiss Iron Bowl II for the BCS championship goodbye.

Third: Florida St. loses to Virginia Tech or Miami in the ACC Championship game in December.  FSU is too focused to lose in the regular season. Florida vs FSU in Gainesville had a Game of the year candidate going into the season. Now it maybe a plowing session as Florida is beyond banged up. The Miami/FSU rematch would be the first since the ACC drew it up to put the teams in separate divisions. However, I think VT is the best choice here. They have the defense and special teams to compete.  Logan Thomas has something to prove right? Lighting up FSU would turn him back into the NFL prospect he was seemingly 15 years ago. Game is in Charlotte, so it would be a true neutral site.  Lose here so late in the season, while Auburn beating whomever it plays in the SEC title game would likely push Auburn past FSU. Bama? well they would have beat the ACC champ by 25 points earlier in the season, so jumping FSU seems reasonable.

Fourth: Oregon loses tonight vs. Stanford. Oregon still has the possibly the toughest schedule left out the bunch with their opponents combined wins and losses being 23-10. This includes at Arizona, whom is 12th in the nation in rushing, 10 spots behind the them, Oregon State six days later, and a possible rematch with UCLA, or Arizona, OR a game with Arizona State, the PAC12 favorite at the beginning of the year. To me, Stanford poses the biggest threat. Last team Oregon lost to on the road? Stanford in 2009, when the Cardinal beat Oregon at their own game (Not Defense) winning 51-42. Thursday night. In Palo Alto. Why not? Question is, will Oregon fall far enough for a Bama skip with a Bama loss so late in the season? Could Auburn skip Oregon when its L came from now a three loss LSU team and Oregon's coming from a top 3 team in Stanford. Will Oregon need to lose twice for Iron Bowl II?

Fifth: Ohio State loses to Michigan State in the B1G championship game.  Michigan won't be able to pull it off with no identity on offense and a QB wearing number 98. Seriously, OSU's best chance of losing is if the nation's "3rd best defense" startle the Buckeyes in Indy.  Can Auburn or Bama jump an undefeated Ohio State? Doubt it. Even if Michigan St. chokes away the appearance and OSU plays Minnesota for the B1G ten belt, Urban would be 25-0 in two years in a major conference.  ESPN would NOT let their former colleague voice not be heard.

Sixth: Baylor losing to any of the teams it has left to play.  No slight to Baylor. Huge Art Briles fan since his Houston days.  If you are bored enough, look at my archives. I wrote about Baylor back in 2009. But its a toss up with them the rest of the way since they historically HAVE NEVER BEEN HERE. They are favored by double digits tonight and it blows my mind even though it would not shock me at all.  But lets just start with Oklahoma and Texas.  Since Art Briles started in Baylor (2008), they have beaten Oklahoma and Texas in the same season only once. (2011, RGIII, Kendall Hunter, Terrance Williams and crew). Not only is it rare, the average point differential is (OK 43-Bay 25.4) (17.6), and (Tex 38.8 - Bay 32.6) (6.2). History shows In Oklahoma's case, they get blasted. And we won't even throw Oklahoma State in there who has been equally as relevant in this time span. So its up to Baylor to prove it. Don't forget, the Big 12's current leader was beat by the SEC West fifth placed team by 19 points...at home.

 Precedent Cases of Rivalry games in the last week with a BCS title rematch? Like Danny Kanell saying something that makes sense, its NEVER HAPPENED. (3)Florida and (1) Florida St. was the last one to happen and that was before the BCS was around (1996). Closest that come to mind in BCS era was (2) Michigan v. (1) Ohio St. I remember it like it was yesterday. I was on Thanksgiving break from the College of Wooster, a school 90 mins north of Columbus. Everything that needed to happen did. Top 5 Matchup? Check. Classic, entertaining game? Check. Even better was that both teams were undefeated, the away team, (2) Michigan, was in the game all the way and showed it belong.  I was in deep fear of going back to Ohio for a rematch and it was nothing you could debate. Michigan's loss came from the no.1 team in the nation, by three, at their place. But thankfully, their was no B1G championship game that would have settled it. Voters didn't want to see it, being that the rematch was so close together; even though they had no real reason of keeping Michigan out of the title game. OSU went on to play Florida, got housed, and the SEC started its run of titles.

So basically, the theory has too many "ifs" to be talked about seriously right now. However, I don't think it takes a ridiculous 2007 season to make it happen.  Everyone should just enjoy the home stretch and the state should just be happy for the first one when it happens in November.





 

Why the Mishaps for the College Football Team at Grambling Does Not Create a Windfall for Student-Athletes Everywhere

              Being somewhat of a former student-athlete, (the term athlete being used loosely) and being around friends that were true student-athletes, you cannot do anything but feel for the football players at Grambling. They met with administrators last week, for apparently not the first time, about having to travel by bus to and from their away games, Grambling facilities and football equipment that the players use and the coaching staff. While the Coaching staff in my eyes is outside of the scope of what the players should actually be worried about, all of their other complaints was justifiable due to the contract they sign with the school and the athletic department, better known as the National Letter of Intent (NLI).

                While the coaching issues might be outside the scope, the team’s facilities and equipment, the health issues stemming from the deterioration of their equipment, and poor transportation guidelines would go directly to the crux to what a football player signs with his (NLI) contract with the school. Just imagine starting a job as a writer at a newspaper company and not having any paper or ink. You are not going to be able to do your job very well. Getting a staph infection from molded equipment as a football player presents the same outcome. Regardless of what is in talks now, Division I Binding (NLI) contracts with financial aid agreements are on a year-to-year basis, which means a player could lose his scholarship at any time after the first year due to standards setup by the coach and/or athletic director. If other schools are flying in to play a neutral site game, why not Grambling? They are a historic HBCU, and probably have the 2nd most NFL players coming from their state besides LSU. Being gone four days out of the week during the middle of the season cannot help the student part of being a student-athlete; (which is also part of the financial aid/scholarship agreement). Therefore, by boycotting practices and games, the players put the onus back on the administrators and directors to allow them to perform (basically their job) in playing football on a more level and healthier field as their opponents. I totally agree with the student-athletes move to protect themselves and to their credit, their stance made national news, ESPN and every other media outlet, and has gotten them a sit down with administration to address these issues on a higher level.
           
                However, there are some people that are saying that this stance from the Grambling student-athletes will have an effect on a bigger level for all college athletes; ex: to get NCAA to start paying athletes, players from bigger DI schools sit out televised games. However, what these student-athletes must remember that doing that could be a violation of team or coach rules, slipping down a roster spot or bigger, losing a scholarship and a shot at finishing for a degree or making it to “the league” possibly. Many of these athletes would not be able to attend these colleges if not for the sport that they participate in. However, players must remain eligible to participate in their sport if they sign the contract. Therefore, by making a stance so powerful, the athlete could come at a loss.

                  So what could be an answer to some of these problems other than boycotting games or sitting out televised games possibly ending exposure to scouts at the next level? Some solutions I think that would be beneficial would be changing the language in some of the NLI agreements to better suit the athletes in performing their jobs better. This could potentially be huge if students in the DI landscape all joined the All Players United (A.P.U.) group and force some of the language in the contract for every school in Division I. This language could include that the administrators keep equipment and facilities up with some of the revenue from tickets or television deals. What about possibly having an additional amount of trainers or medical personnel on staff? These are just some of the ways as a collective unit that athletes can make sure that coaches and athletic personnel are doing their job as well when working with these NLIs. (Until, of course, the NCAA makes serious consideration of four year scholarships and paying players).

Are Missouri and Texas A&M Football Teams Taking Bread off the SEC Table?

With Missouri losing to Vandy, and Texas A&M almost losing to a program that has not won a conference game in 16 tries, I thought it would be a good time to revisit an excerpt of a piece I wrote about the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and its revenue sources back in April. This is the section about the addition of Missouri and Texas A&M and its affect on the SEC's main revenue producer, football. If you would like to see my complete breakdown of the SEC revenue and how it stacks up with other conferences (in Word or PowerPoint format) email me at johngibson2121@yahoo.com or message me on twitter @Jflashuby.

 

As of the fall 2012 sporting season, the SEC expanded to 14 schools with the addition of Missouri and Texas A&M, both formerly of the Big 12. Texas A&M brings a passionate fan base about football, a generally competitive team, and an exciting new coach to the field. Kyle Field is a historic football stadium currently the 13th biggest in the NCAA. They bring the Texas television market, more specifically the Houston market, ranked 10th biggest in the nation. This ties in with long-term profitability because instead of having at the most 10 Bowl Spots for 12 teams, the SEC has at the most 10 Bowl Spots for 14 teams. Therefore, in the future, as of right now, the SEC can only make the maximum amount of money of 10 Bowl spots; while splitting the revenue with more teams, which would inevitably put it at a loss. The SEC and its current bowl tie-in contracts are currently enforceable until after the 2013 season. They are marginal at best at every other sport the SEC competes in except Baseball, which is generally not a revenue producer in the SEC.

 

Even though Missouri has been a fairly competitive football program lately, their best asset to the SEC will be its passionate basketball fan base. Their basketball fans don't rival Kentucky's but it will start the SEC basketball season as the 2nd biggest by far. St. Louis and Kansas City has hosted numerous Big 12 championship games, including the last one, because Missouri's basketball fans come out in groves. This could be an asset to the SEC.

 

However, one of the biggest reason Missouri was added because of its television market as well. The St. Louis market is the 31st biggest in the nation. (1) However, bringing an extra team for a seasonal market at best could be a stretch in the long scheme of things. Additionally, Missouri, or more specifically St. Louis, is arguably a professional market. Missouri has 5 professional teams that have been entrenched long in the state's sporting history. The only other state that comes close to that in the south is Florida. One author's take while covering sports in Missouri was this: "Walking around the St. Louis Zoo, the grocery store, dropping my nephew off at school, watching people in the airport, I observed only a handful of "Mizzou" shirts. The sports media there barely covers conference realignment rumors. There is zero "buzz" about the SEC. The greatest attribute the SEC possesses is the passion of its fans."(2) The SEC maybe able to initiate the market early with big home games coming to Columbia in the fall, but in the long-run, will Missouri fans will travel miles away from home for any other sport other than basketball? That remains to be seen. (To update this section with real evidence, St. Louis is still proving to be a Professional television market earlier this football season. The St. Louis Rams 2^nd game of the year, against the Lions, drew higher ratings than the Missouri/Georgia game; The highest watched game for Missouri in St. Louis in 5 years. I have not even mentioned the biggest stronghold of the state...the Cardinals.)
(7)

 

Lastly, I think what the SEC is missing is that it maybe harming its product. SEC is in demand right now because they have the most superior sports programs within its 12 institutions and its belief in revenue sharing which allows schools to compete on a more equal footing from facilities to coaches. However, 14 members in a major conference competing year-round are unchartered waters. The SEC already has the highest expenditures in athletics; with two additional teams, there will automatically be less money for the conference to split. (3) Additionally, there is talk that we can be losing some of our rivalries in football by staying at eight conference games. Missouri, in the Eastern Division, is at a huge geographical disadvantage compared to any other team in the conference. However, the product would be at a huge disadvantage by scheduling nine games. With the SEC's recent championships and bowl win-loss record, its biggest threat to win championships and make more money is itself. By scheduling nine games, teams in the SEC will automatically schedule lighter, losing out on money by competing with other conference's teams such as Penn St., Michigan Texas etc. Therefore, the SEC's decision on realignment of its teams has the potential to backfire long-term if it does not do its homework on how to handle the fourteen institutions after this inaugural year.

 

2. Bowl-Tie-ins    

    Another way the SEC makes revenue is through Bowl games. In the last 5 years, the SEC has been getting an average of 9 of its 12 schools into bowls, higher than any other conference. With Bowl games, the two teams participating split the payout from participating. However, the SEC has its own rules on how to handle those payouts:

 

*For bowl games with receipts <$1.5M, the participating school retains $925k plus travel expenses; the remainder is remitted to the SEC.

*For bowl games with receipts of $1.5M or more, but <$4M, the participating school retains $1.125M plus travel expenses; the remainder is remitted to the SEC.

*For bowl games with receipts of $4M or more, <$6M, the participating school retains $1.325M plus travel expenses; the remainder is remitted to the SEC.

*For bowl games with receipts of >$6M, the participating school retains $1.825M ($1.925M if it's the MNC); the remainder is remitted to the SEC.

All of the money that is remitted to the SEC above is pooled; the SEC and each member school get 1/13 of the pool.
(4)

(From the SEC Constitution) (Pg. 42)

 

The SEC has nine bowl tie-ins not counting the national championship game. The Bowl tie-ins are the Sugar, Capital, Outback, Cotton, Chick-Fil-A, Gator, Music-City, Liberty and Compass. These bowl games alone are worth $78.16 Million dollars or $8.7 Million dollars per bowl game. (5) To put this in even more perspective, the rest of the teams left participating in bowls across the various conferences are left only $202 million once the SEC takes its share. The SEC would only forfeit these games if they had multiple teams in the BCS, and other teams not being the minimum of the now 6-6 mandate.

This ties in with long-term profitability because instead of having at the most 10 Bowl Spots for 12 teams, the SEC has at the most 10 Bowl Spots for 14 teams. Therefore, in the future, as of right now, the SEC can only make the maximum amount of money of 10 Bowl spots; while splitting the revenue with more teams, which would inevitably put it at a loss. The SEC and its current bowl tie-in contracts are currently enforceable until after the 2013 season. (6)

Additionally, there has been talk of making a tougher bowl game criteria which no doubt, would affect the SEC's bottom line in the long run. The proposal is that teams must have an overall record of at least 7-5 to participate in the bowls. This would help the case for a playoff, but harm the SEC's revenue yearly, especially since it expanded the league to 14. If this proposal was in effect last year, the SEC would have had three less bowl teams but more importantly, would have lost $4.2 million dollars in bowl payouts. Which would lead me to ask; just what exactly do Missouri and Texas A&M bring to the table again?

*Updated Notes as of October 6^th, 2012:

• There will be a playoff format in Division I football as of 2014 (HA! Thank God.)
  
• Traditional Rivalries have already been affected with these two teams alone: In the "two money making" sports, Missouri is not scheduled to play Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma or Iowa St. in ANYTHING. The Arch Rivalry in Basketball with Illinois is on schedule this year. Texas A&M has ceased playing Texas, its biggest rival. They get to renew their rivalries with LSU, but will step out of the local rivalries with Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU. They are on schedule to play the inferior programs of Rice and SMU in football and Houston in basketball.
  
• The SEC and the Big 12 (how fitting), has added the Champions Bowl, but it is unclear to me whether or not this will be an additional bowl or re-naming/taking the place of another bowl (like the Cotton) because of the SEC's history with the BCS. It does start in 2015; after the first year of the playoff in college football.
  
• As of Oct. 6^th, the SEC has 7 teams with 1-loss or less, and 10 teams that are .500 or better; making the hypothetical of fighting for the 10^th bowl spot a real possibility…
  

(1)
http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2012/04/new_sec_members_missouri_texas.html

(2)
http://dev.chuckoliver.net/2011/08/missouri-doesnt-show-me-it-belongs-in-sec/

(3)
http://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/news/2012/02/16/collegiate-athletic-conferences-generate.html

(4)
http://sec.xosdigitallabs.com/Portals/3/SEC%20Website/football/Constitution.pdf

(5)
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_college/2011/11/bowl-payouts-projected-around-281-million.html

(6)
http://www.mrsec.com/2012/04/slive-talks-new-bowl-possibilities-for-his-league/

(7) http://www.stltoday.com/entertainment/television/dan-caesar/rams-tv-ratings-rise-but-fall-short-of-last-years/article_4769cd9e-77ff-59f6-8fe9-4d7fbb37e052.html

How the SEC Dodged Its Own Bullet:

Why 8>9 in SEC Football

Intercollegiate athletics are going through some major changes, and it appears to be for the worst.  Super Conferences seem inevitable; however, the SEC seems concrete - thanks to its leader, Commissioner Mike Slive.  The SEC would add Missouri and Texas A&M, split them up in the East and West divisions (in sports like football) or throw them in the mix (like basketball) and just invade TV markets -- no short of New Mexico.

Early in the year, Slive made it clear that the sport schedules for 2012-13 would be the schedules only for that season. So, we now have 14 teams. Fourteen is a weird number.  The first thing that popped in my head is: what will the schedule look like? There were already rumblings of discrepancies. Are rivalries going to be harmed? How is traveling going to be handled? Will Georgia continue getting “these” schedules?  Then I heard the shocker: to make it fair maybe we should go to 9 SEC Conference games schedule in football.

Being an SEC fan, relief engulfed me when I discovered that there were eight SEC games scheduled from Alabama to Vandy.  Taking the homer glasses off, for the last six years the SEC has dominated the college football landscape. But each of the champions has had its share of close calls or even losses in the regular season.[1] Check the table below:

 Close Calls on the Road to BCS Title[2]

 

’06 Florida 13-1	L  @ Aub., 1pt. W v Tenn., 7pt.W v UGA, 6pt. W @ Vandy, 1pt. W v So. Car, 7pt. W @ FSU
’07 LSU    12-2	L (3OT) @ UK, L (3OT)v Ark, 6pt. W v Aub, 7 pt. W @ Bama
’08 Florida 13-1	L @ Ole Miss, 11 pt. Comeback W v Bama in SEC Champ.
’09 Alabama 14-0	2 pt. W v Tenn., 9 pt. W v LSU, 5 pt. W @ Aub
’10 Auburn 14-0	3pt. W @ Miss. St, OT W v. Clem, 8 pt. W v So. Car., 3pt. W @ UK, 7pt. W v LSU, Spotted UGA 24 pts before W, Comeback Game v. Bama
’11 Alabama 13-1	3 pt. L v. LSU

[3]

Sticking with eight is hard enough, so when the idea of the nine games reappeared this week, the issue became the subject of much debate.  All speculation was put to rest after the June 1 vote, which resulted in the approval of an eight game schedule.  Nonetheless, I had to write about what the SEC almost did; it almost relinquished its most treasured asset…all by adding one game to its SEC schedule.

6-1-1 or 8 games vs. 9 games

The most controversial issue for fans and others was whether or not the nine game schedule would be the best shot for keeping the out of state rivalry games; however, the eight game schedule keeps the rivalries.[4]  My initial thought for dealing with the two new teams was to make the them, Missouri and Texas A&M, partners/rivals.  In football, these two teams have provided a competitive game the last couple of years; besides, they would provide a natural familiar face for each other.  Instead, the SEC assigned Arkansas and Missouri which is great, given its close proximity and basketball history.  Similarly, the assignment of South Carolina with Texas A&M could be interesting; their similarities/ties include maroon colors. 

The Biggest Gripe I’ve been hearing has come from LSU.  Their AD thinks it is unfair because their partner is Florida every year in football. So LSU, recently, has had its own personal round robin with national champions.  Apparently, he fails to realize that the only possible partners they could have are Mizzou, Carolina or Kentucky as every other opponent has a legit rival.  Also, fans love this game now.  It is generally a top-25 matchup and is often the CBS game of the week, if not night game of the year. He has just got to man-up. Clearly, he is not aware of the Alabama/Tennessee rivalry…especially between the 10 year span of 1989-99.  There was a ranked team in the game every year, and both teams were ranked 7 out of the 11 times, even as Bama was on probation. All seven times both teams were in the top 15…and this is a real rivalry. It happens, man. 

SEC Championship Game Surprise

By staying with the eight game schedule, the SEC helps keep the mystique of the SEC Championship game.  In its 19 year history at Legion Field in Birmingham, AL there has been only a rematch 6 times showing the parody of the league.  Other conferences lack that. The Big Ten’s first year was a rematch, and the PAC-12’s first year would have been a rematch if USC was not on probation.  Instead, Oregon got UCLA, who ended up 6-8.  The SEC championship has had a top 25 matchup every year and six upsets according to the rankings.  By adding nine games, simple math tells me that it causes a greater probability of making a rematch[5]. Adding nine games ultimately ensures that an SEC team would face a tenth SEC opponent in the regular season, thereby making the schedule even tougher, which makes the probability of going unscathed or to the BCS title game even tougher.  What SEC fans don’t get (in my opinion) is that there will be no sympathy taken for an undefeated SEC title game loser because of many reasons, including the fear of what happened last year. Maybe, there would be some consideration in the playoff "Top 4 Method", but no way in the world in the BCS.

Cupcake City Goes National

My last point is that the “out of conference” schedule would take a major hit if the SEC joined the frenzy, that is, the nine game conference schedules.  In 2006, the PAC 12, back when they were the PAC 10, decided that their teams would play all the conferences’ teams.  Since spreading out to the South and North, they have kept the nine games, protecting ONLY the California schools. Therefore in theory, Oregon v. USC, a decent rivalry the last ten years, is not protected. The BIG12 plays nine conference games thanks to only having ten schools (Insert joke here). The ACC has approximately 200 schools they’ve added and 200 schools looking to leave. Currently you play the six in your division and three in the other with one of those three being protected. The BIG10 is moving to nine in 2017. 

Of all conferences, the SEC and ACC generally schedule the toughest out of conference games as a conference. One of the better seasons I can remember (OOC) for a conference was the SEC’s 2009-10 season.  There was Bama/VT, UGA/GT, So.Car/Clem, Miss.St./Hou., Miss.St/GT, UGA/Ok.St, Aub/West Va., all ranked matchups.  You may have your Ohio St., Oklahoma, or Oregon programs that travel out, helping their own prestige, but not as a conference making the commissioner papa proud.  By adding nine games, The SEC would move to cupcake city too…if they were smart. 

The SEC has the highest Non-League Power Rating since 05-06, while having the toughest strength of schedule four of those six years as a conference.[6] Why would I schedule Boise when I have a nine game SEC schedule, especially when it is conceivable that all nine teams could be ranked?  Back when the conference consisted of 12 schools, the SEC had an average of nine teams to get into bowls, higher than any other conference in the last five years.  The conference as a whole has only dipped below a .600 winning percentage twice since the 2005-06 season.  If a team replaces a cupcake or a program altering game with a SEC team in the regular season, it reduces its chances for a win and could lower the leagues’ chance of making more money at a bowl. Personally, I don’t blame the ADs. I think it is a direct correlation that Ohio St., the BIG10 strongest scheduler, has already backed out of playing Georgia and Tennessee since the BIG10 has announced they were headed to nine games in 2012. USC, generally the PAC12 toughest scheduler, moved to cupcake city in 2011 when the PAC12 kept the nine games and added the championship game. Their toughest OOC game looks to be Texas A&M in 2015.[7]

For the last two years, the college football landscape has been moving and shaking all around the SEC.  But by keeping a 12 game schedule, while leaving the leagues’ games at eight instead of nine, the SEC still has the best shot to run for the title.    

---

[1] I count Conference Championship games as the regular season because they are. You lose the game; it affects where you play in the post season.

[2] I consider close games as 10 points or fewer or if the score is not indicative of the game, and I actually watched it. I could have added the Arkansas game as well but you get the drift about the special 2010 Auburn season. Bold is an Out Of Conference game. As you can see, the biggest opponent to the BCS Title over the last 6 years of the SEC has been the SEC itself.

[3] The easiest argument to this is that SEC has a weak OOC - not the case. Keep reading.

[4] According to Clay Travis, Coaches Nick Saban, Derek Dooley, Gene Chiznik and Mark Richt favored the 9 game conference schedules. I’m not sure why Richt favors them, since UGA had the easiest SEC schedule possible in SEC history last year. Rumor has it nine games gives Dooley a better chance to beat someone other than Vandy and UK. It is important to note that Jesse Palmer wants nine games as well.

[5] Winning team in season matchup is 5-1 in the rematch of the SEC championship game. This includes the debacle that was Auburn/So.Car in 2010. I literally fell asleep in the 1^st half. My conference championship game theory:  the higher the rankings of both teams or if the teams have not seen each other all year = more intrigue. More intrigue = more viewers. More viewers = more money. And that’s the main focus right? The best example (ever) to illustrate this point: ’08 SEC Championship game: #1 Bama v. #2 UF who hadn’t seen each other since ’06.

[6] According to teamrankings.com

[7] I do not count the OOC rivalry games the fans would literally fight the AD if he removed off the schedule. Therefore with USC I’m not counting Notre Dame because it’s a giving those two are going to play, especially with ND being in the wilderness without a conference

“The Supreme Team”

“The Supreme Team”©

Did the Lockout Ruin the Greatest Basketball Team Ever Assembled?

             We have repeatedly heard the story of Coach K touting that there will never be another Dream Team.  To a certain extent, he is right. There will probably never be a team to do quite as much for its sport as the Dream Team did for basketball.  It helped influence the evolution of the game to what it is today, with the Dirk’s, Ginobli’s, Gasol’s, etc.  Like us, these dudes were kids watching the Dream Team go around the country signing autographs while beating teams by 60 points.  Many of these guys patterned their game like that of the players they saw in Barcelona.  Ultimately, this is why the game is so paired today.  However, I believe in the saying that “records are made to be broken.”  Invariably, the records of players and teams are eventually surpassed.  Before there was MJ, there was Oscar Robertson.  Before there was Shaq, there was Kareem. No one player or team is bigger than the game.  It evolves. It transcends. It gets better.  And that is what the 2012 USA basketball team was going to be…the best basketball team ever…the Supreme Team.

How the lockout impacted the Supreme Team

                The belief that the lockout had nothing to do with the rash of injuries to the NBA is irrational.  Teams were playing 8 games in 11 days! Basketball is not made to play like baseball. A medical degree is not necessary to make the following observations: players sit during the offseason; when the offseason lasts longer, players sit longer; after getting a sudden call to training camp, which is sliced in half, the player’s body is called upon to do things it normally would not do in the shortened timespan.  Players push their bodies to the limit because games are more valuable with the shortened season.  Consider Derrick Rose, who would have been played a huge role on the Supreme Team.  He had leg injuries ALL YEAR.  Then there is Dwight Howard, the NBA’s best center.  He pulled a disk in his back.  Guess what?  The first things that hurt when the body is fatigued are the back and the legs.

                One thing about which there has been little to no conversation is that most of the finalists, who made it through the season, made a commitment to the USA to play in the Olympics.  But did Jerry Colangelo ponder the lockout?  Players are not only drained, but many are now becoming disgruntled about having to train and play.  Dwayne Wade even mentioned getting paid to play. That may sound preposterous to some, but the fact that he potentially may have to play basketball for an entire year straight could sound preposterous to him. I’m not blaming anyone for the lockout because both sides agreed to it, but to say it did not affect the players both mentally and physically is ridiculous.

Wait; Who is the Supreme Team?

                Considering the USA Basketball Finalists Roster, it would be little doubt as to how Coach K and Jerry Colangelo would have constructed the 12 member “Supreme Team.”   I have thoroughly deliberated the issue of Rajon Rondo, LaMarcus Aldridge or Blake Griffith not being on the “Supreme Team.”  To start, Blake Griffith’s athleticism is an asset, but he brings little of anything else to the table.  The opposite is true of LaMarcus Aldridge; he has a fairly fundamental game but is not athletic, and does not rebound that great for his size.  The hardest person to leave off this list is Rondo.  He is an exceptional talent; however, his lack of shooting is a liability.  In addition, every point guard on the Supreme Team has an element of his game.  Derrick Rose is more athletic; CP3 throws dimes just as well. Westbrook is a better defender…and they all can shoot.  In view of Rose’s injury, I expect Rondo, James Harden or Ray Allen to take the last guard spot in London.  I also expect Tyson Chandler or Anthony Davis to take Dwight Howard’s place.  Of course, these changes make the playing team the almost supreme team… thanks to the lockout.

Supreme Team Players	2011-12 NBA Stats
Guards
Chris Paul	19.8 ppg, 9.1 apg, 2.5 stls, 50% fg, 40% 3pt
Deron Williams	21.0 ppg, 8.7 apg, 1.2 stls, 40% fg, 30% 3pt
Russell Westbrook	23.6 ppg, 5.5 apg, 4.6 reb, 45% fg,  31%3pt
Derrick Rose	21.8 ppg, 7.9 apg, 3.4 reb, 43% fg,  31%3pt
Dwayne Wade	22.1 ppg, 4.6 apg, 4.8 reb, 1.7 stls, 1.3 blks
Kobe Bryant	27.9 ppg, 4.6 apg, 5.4 reb, 43% fg  1.7 stls,
Forwards
Lebron James	27.1 ppg, 6.2 apg, 7.9 reb, 53% fg, 2.0 stls
Carmelo Anthony	22.6 ppg, 3.6 apg, 6.3 reb, 43% fg, 33.5% 3pt
Kevin Durant	28.0 ppg, 3.5 apg, 8.0 reb, 50% fg, 38.7% 3pt
Forwards/Centers
Chris Bosh	18.0 ppg, 7.9 reb, 49% fg, 0.9 blks
Kevin Love	26.0 ppg, 13.3 reb, 45% fg, 1.0 stls 37% 3pt
Dwight Howard	20.6 ppg, 14.5 reb, 57% fg, 1.5 stls, 2.1 blks

Source:  www.nba.com

Better than the Dream Team?

                First, if there was a game, played on a neutral court, it would be extremely competitive.  But I ask you to take your Jordan Brand goggles off for a second.  There are not many weaknesses on the Supreme Team.  The Dream Team is made up of 11 Hall of Fame players true enough, but most of these players were not in their prime at the start of the ‘92 Olympics.  Magic actually retired in ’91. Larry joined the Dream Team but retired right after. Clyde Drexler was on the downside of his career as he played a season low in games after returning from the Olympics. This team would have been really old if it wasn’t for Christian Laettner skewing the statistics.  Compare that with Kobe Bryant’ skewing of the Supreme Teams’ age; Kobe is 34 years old.  In fact, the average age for the Dream Team was 29, while the Supreme Team’s age would have been 26.5, a huge difference in basketball years.  So the youthful exuberance category would definitely go to the Supreme Team…if there was no lockout.

Dream Team Depth Chart

Point Guards – Magic Johnson, Scottie Pippen, John Stockton

Shooting Guards – Michael Jordan, Chris Mullin, Clyde Drexler

Small Forwards – Charles Barkley, Larry Bird

Power Forwards – Karl Malone, Christian Laettner

Centers – Patrick Ewing, David Robinson *Bold = Led in Playing time

                Secondly, the original Supreme Team would have been much more athletic than the Dream Team, and quite frankly, the degree of athleticism is not even close. I define versatility in basketball as the ability to play multiple positions on offense and guard multiple positions on defense. Therefore, using my definition, the most versatile player on the Dream Team would be Scottie Pippen. Pippen (6’7”) could bring the ball up, play the perimeter, and post on the offensive side, while guarding four positions on the defensive side. Sir Charles and MJ were freakish athletes as well, but even so, they pale in comparison of the Supreme Team. Imagine the team of Wade, Kobe, Melo, Durant and Lebron on the floor.  This team has the ability to guard multiple positions and switch EVERYTHING on the defensive end while getting out and running any set they want on the offensive end.  Lebron not only can guard 5 positions in the Olympics, he can do it in the NBA.  What about a quickness lineup? Good luck building a quick five for the Dream Team. But the Supreme Team? How about the five of D Rose, Westbrook, Wade, Durant and Lebron?  And just think, I wrote a whole paragraph about athleticism without mentioning Dwight Howard! The athleticism category goes to the original Supreme Team…if there was no lockout.

                The biggest weakness one could say about the Supreme Team relates to 3-point shooting.   But is it a weakness? The Dream Team did just fine shooting 36% percent in its 8 games on the road to the gold in 1992.  The Redeem Team shot 37% percent from three in its 8 games and it did just fine.  The Supreme Team would be replacing the combined 38.7% percent 3-point percentage of Michael Redd, Jason Kidd, and Tayshaun Prince with Kevin Love and Kevin Durant. Love hit 37% percent from the longer three point line in the NBA this year. Durant was third in the league in three pointers made while shooting 38.7% percent (good for 38^th in the league), which is remarkable considering the amount and type of threes he shoots.  Furthermore, this number would only go up because of the shorter 3 point line on the international court.  A concrete example of this would be Lebron and D Wade, who combined to shoot 47 percent from the three point line as members of the Redeem Team.

                Finally, one must also remember that when the Dream Team played, their competitors were fans, happy to be playing on the same court as the Dream Team. However, the Redeem Teams’ statistics, such as points per game (-11 off from the Dream Team), PPG differential (-15.9) and opponent’s ppg (-4.9) is pretty remarkable considering the all-time high globalism of the NBA.  One would anticipate that these numbers would only go up with the Supreme Team, in view of the facts that the NBA’s top 5 scorers of 2011 as well as the 2010-11 defensive player of the year are playing on the squad.  This is in no way an article bashing the Dream Team; rather, it is an article not waiting on the future to recognize a historic team…if there was not a lockout.©