Friday, August 15, 2014

Top Games of the Year...of the Week! (2014)

These are my top games of the 2014 College Football Season. I got games week by week since of course, the college football landscape changes week by week.  Of course, ESPN and other networks might have publicized some of the obvious ones on the list; however, most of the games on my list will have major ramifications or just be a great game that will be enjoyed by real fans of college football.

(Week 1) Boise St v. Ole Miss (Atlanta) – Ole Miss has more hype than ever. This is a huge game for the program being in the spotlight. Boise may not be the Boise team you rooted against earlier this decade, but they will not be phased by this spot. They never do. No matter the coach. Let see if Coach Freeze can get his team to handle the pressure.

Notable other games:
2. LSU vs. Wisconsin (Houston) - SEC vs. B1G. First team to 21 wins.
3. Ohio State vs. Navy (Baltimore) - Last time this game was played in the same position was in 2009. Navy lost by four in "the shoe". The Buckeyes are notorious for slow starts; and can be quickly 0-1 with this veteran Navy team (No pun).

(Week 2) Michigan State vs. Oregon - I cannot lie, I absolutely love that the B1G stepped up its out of conference schedule this year (mainly OSU and MSU). Different shades of the color green, Big against fast, Old School Nike against New School Nike, I love everything this game stands for. This games can be a prelude for what the Ducks have to see against Stanford. MSU can show the national stage who still has the belt in the Big Ten.

Notable other games:
2. USC vs. Stanford - Kooky game recently because Stanford typically can't out physical USC...which is even kookier that I type that. Also kooky is that USC hadn't won at Stanford since 2008. Kooky.
3. Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State - It seems like we haven't heard from VT in a while. We'll get to see them front and center in Columbus...at night.

(Week 3) Georgia vs. South Carolina - Even though this game is played so early in the season, this game shapes the East seemingly every year since Spurrier has made USC what it is.  It will be important again because with South Carolina's brutal schedule, they cannot afford to straight up lose to the UGA with so many huge AWAY games left.

Notable other games:
2. Arkansas vs. Texas Tech - Two coaches, in their second years with teams going in two different directions at the end of last year. Both coaches like to talk a big game too, so they both will be gunning for this game to help steer the season the right way.
3. Houston vs. BYU - Points on points on points on points on a Thursday night? I'm down.

(Week 4) Auburn vs. Kansas State - I believe that Auburn is from top to bottom the best team in the SEC. However, I cannot express how random this game is. Thursday night, away game, in Manhattan, KANSAS. Both teams (who should both be ranked), want to run it down each others throats but at different paces. Auburn cannot turn the ball over if they want to win. I'd be surprised if this game is won by more than one possession.

Notable other games:
2. UCLA vs Texas - A lot of people think UCLA will be favored in every game this year. This will be a great barometer of where both programs are. Last time the Bruins came to Texas they won by 22.
Indiana vs Missouri - Points on points on points on points game II. Early, yet huge game for both teams bowl hopes.
3. Oregon vs Washington State - Lost from last season was that Washington St. scored the most points against Oregon all year in Eugene while sparking a weird beef between the two coaching staffs. Also lost from last season was that guy that got broke off by Mariota on all his highlight clips.

(Week 5) UCLA vs. Arizona State - UCLA, with all its hype, will be going thru its trickiest part of the year coming off an out of conference game at Texas before taking on ASU at their place on a Thursday night.  The last three games in this series has been won by a total of eight points.  The winner of this game has also represented the PAC-12 South the last three years as well.

Notable other games:
2. Minnesota vs Michigan - I fully expect Minnesota to compete for the Big Ten West division (which is the clearly the weakest division), so this would be a huge game for them to steal especially since the other East opponent is Ohio State.
3. Oregon State vs. USC - Game is always a weird one because neither team wins this game when they are supposed to.  Last time this game was played in L.A. it was a shootout won by six points by the Trojans.

(Week 6) Alabama vs Ole Miss - Ole Miss finally has Bama back at the Grove (has been two years). This has been a weird game because spread, hurry up teams (there is a difference) tend to lately give Alabama the most trouble EXCEPT Ole Miss. Ole Miss has averaged 7ppg, 23ppg under their average going against Alabama. This game should be different because Ole Miss is another year older and this will be Alabama's first true road game. Lets see if Coach Freeze can handle calling the game correctly this year.

Notable other games:
2. Mississippi St. vs LSU - Battle for the SEC West's Third place crown?
3. Baylor vs Texas - Texas has a tough month of September but can open October with a bang WITH AN UPSET OF BIG 12 FAVORITE BAYLOR.
4. Ohio State vs. Maryland - Can the Buckeyes get their 2nd win in Maryland? Facing another Mobile QB...

(Week 7) Oregon vs UCLA - UCLA thinks that have all the depth to be the King of the Hill in the PAC-12 but these are the game that has been getting all the hype in the Jim Mora Jr. era at UCLA with no results. Oregon will be coming to Pasadena off playing the teams that put the most points on them last year...No Excuses.

Notable other games:
2. Auburn vs Mississippi St. - First SEC Road game for the Tigers. Will Mississippi State be ranked?
3. Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M - First time Ole Miss has visited the "12th Man"...as a favorite? Points on points on points on points SEC Style.
4. Louisville vs. Clemson - Battle for the ACC Atlantic's 2nd place crown?

(Week 8) Notre Dame vs. Florida St. - First game with FSU on this list because frankly their schedule is terrible. However, these are two of college football's historic powers at positive times at their programs.  This will be first the first true road game for Notre Dame who could easily be 6-1 headed to the Doak with the uphill task of knocking FSU off that no.1 spot.

Notable other games:
2. Washington vs. Oregon - Another Weird game for Oregon coming home to a team that plays just like the team they just played. Chris Petersen lives for these games.
3. Michigan St. vs. Indiana - Sandwiched between a cakewalk and a rivalry game with Michigan, this game with Indiana will be a conference game that looks nothing like one (Hoosiers avg. almost 600ypg while averaging barely 40K in attendance) UPSET ALERT.
4. Texas A&M vs. Alabama - Last home loss for Alabama, so there will be a ore about this game. Texas A&M will be coming off of back to backs with the Magnolia State schools leaving me to think how much will be left.

(Week 9) South Carolina vs. Auburn - This game can help to prove detrimental to the SEC playoff chances while being one of the most entertaining, most on the line games of the year. I am pretty big into foreshadowing, so I'll tell you now, I think we will see this game twice this year; just like the last time these two teams played in Auburn.

Notable other games:
2. BYU vs. Boise St. - Points on points on points on points pt. III.  One of two away games that can possibly keep BYU from being undefeated...
3. Oregon St. vs. Stanford - Trap game for Stanford with Oregon on the horizon the very next week.

(Week 10) Stanford vs. Oregon - Has been the showcase game in the PAC-12 since Stanford's emergence. PAC-12 Rose Bowl participant, championship game winner and banner holder from the conference the last couple of years. Big vs. small, Slow vs. Quick, 160 million jersey combinations vs. three. This matchup has not disappointed last four years; don't expect it to this year either.

Notable other games:
2. Auburn vs. Ole Miss - Old friends/coach mates battling out for 1st, 2nd, 3rd spot in the West? Teams are so similar to what each other wants to do.
3. Florida St. vs. Louisville - Weird things happen in Louisville on Thursday nights with or without Bobby Petrino.


(Week 11) Baylor vs. Oklahoma - Big 12 Championship game for 2nd year in a row? Both teams bring a lot back from both teams making a BCS appearance for the Big 12 last year. Baylor has to do it in Norman though, a place they have never won...ever.

Notable other games:
2. Ohio State vs. Michigan St. - I got this game just under 1st place due to the Big12 being the corniest conference without a title game.  This game can make for an interesting sequel to the 2013 championship game since they now have to battle for it in the way more powerful Big Ten East.
3. Alabama vs. LSU - Game may lose a little luster due to records and inexperience with LSU but its still in Baton Rouge at night. Bama hadn't won four in a row against LSU since the championship season...in 1992.

(Week 12) Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech - Rematch of a very enjoyable, competitive game in Norman that saw both teams undefeated before Oklahoma stole one in the rain.  Crazy stat is that both teams has alternated wins in this series until last year since 2005. This game should be at night where things tend to get a little weird in Lubbock.

Notable other games:
2. Nebraska vs Wisconsin - Battle for 1st in the much more cupcake Big Ten West?
3. Mississippi St. vs. Alabama - Has recently been a very tough, physical game no matter the score. Battle for 2nd in the SEC West?
4. Ohio State vs. Minnesota - Teams haven't played since 2010. Minnesota hasn't won since 2000. But the Gophers are back running the ball and my sleeper to get out of the Big Ten West. Steal this one here can setup a rematch in December.

(Week 13) USC vs. UCLA - Some people think UCLA could be favored in every game this year...but before their big showdown with Stanford they have another game with a typically physical team in USC. UCLA win this game, and they might just have L.A. The Bruins have not beat USC three times in a row since the 90's...when they beat the Trojans eight times in a row; longest in the rivalry.

Notable other games:
2. Tulsa vs. Houston - Points on Points on Points on Points part IV. Is Houston still undefeated at this spot?
3. Minnesota vs. Nebraska - Should be an elimination game for the Big Ten West. Only other team with a pulse is favorite Wisconsin.

(Week 14) Auburn vs. Alabama - Rivalry, Payback, Strange things that don't happen in college football games ever? Check. These teams could be undefeated or have one or two losses, either way I think this game comes down with something on the line in the best division in football.

Notable other games:
Oregon vs. Oregon State - Can Oregon St. finally beat the Ducks in a big spot. Coach Riley is 0-7 against Oregon since 2007.
Stanford vs. UCLA - Rivalry game? (4 games in 5 yrs) Preview of Pac-12 Championship game? Does UCLA have enough in the tank after a physical game with USC?
Baylor vs Texas Tech - These former co-workers (Houston) sound so much like each other in interviews its crazy. Will Baylor be undefeated here? Can the student knock the teacher off?
South Carolina vs Clemson - Rivalry game. South Carolina should be higher in the rankings. Can Clemson knock USC off finally?











Friday, August 1, 2014

College Football Teams to look out for in 2014

Time to gear up for the 2014 college football season! Whether it is an office pool or to show you are the smartest person in the room, I have decided to open up the season by giving you some squads to look out for to help you out.  Like every year, there will be shocking upsets and overtime thrillers that will change the landscape weekly. Here are MY teams that may do just that.


BYU. Why a Surprise? Could go undefeated in 2014. BYU had one of the toughest schedules last year; but also a revamped offensive scheme and did not lose a game by more than ten points in the regular season. This year the schedule gets a bit softer with only the Coogs going to Texas and Boise but Houston coming to Utah. BYU averaged over 260 yards per game rushing, and had its highest coring average since 2009. Both the QB and RB each gained well over a 1,000 yards and both come back along with their entire O-line. BYU vs. Houston on September 11th is a game to watch.

Houston. Why a Surprise? Potential American Athletic Conference winner this year. If you mixed last years team defense with the offense Kevin Sumlin and Case Keenum and David Kolb had in the past, you might have had another prestigious Houston squad challenging for a title. They were a whopping  +25 in turnover differential in 2013. Houston still looks to spread it out, and she have a more powerful offense this year (lowest offensive output since 2006) with their entire 2-deep on offense coming back.  Toughest game seems to be at BYU who they lost to last year by a point in a shootout. They lost 4 games in last years regular season all by one possession. It is logical that Houston can beat every team it faces.

Indiana – Why a Surprise? Will make a bowl game for the 10th time in Indiana's 121st season. The Hoosiers had one of the tougher schedules playing a total of 6 teams that was ranked at one part of time in the season. They had one of the most balanced offenses in the nation (18th in passing, 30th and rushing) and they return both QBs, RB, and entire o-line from a team that averaged the most points in IU history.  If they can somehow find a defense (9 starters back) (from a terrible unit), they will make the BIG 10 East a more competitive division than it already is.   Only three super tough road games, at Missouri, at Michigan, and at Ohio St. I fully expect the winner of their games with Bowling Green and Mizzou to have 60 points.

Marshall. Why a Surprise? Could go undefeated. Not too many tough games on the Thundering Herd's schedule. Toughest away game looks to be Old Dominion who just moved to the FBS division last year. Some of the most prolific players in the CUSA come back for Marshall that averaged in the top 25 in both Passing and Rushing Yards in the nation.  Rakeem Cato is this years Colt Brennan (Heisman darkhorse who really has no chance to win the Heisman but should be in NY) and has a chance to break all of Byron Leftwich and Chad Pennington's records at Marshall. Lost 4 games last year by a total of 30 pts all on the road including a 3OT game with Virginia Tech. If this was the 2013 BCS era they would have played the role of UCF no doubt.

Navy. Why a Surprise? Could end year in Top 10. Navy has a chance for their 3rd double digit win total in the last ten years and second since 2009.  Speaking of 2009, that was the last time the Midshipman played Ohio State. They loss that game by four points in the same situation.  This year they get the Buckeyes in Baltimore which is possibly the only game (other than Notre Dame) Navy could be unfavored in. Speaking of the Irish, after that long historic losing streak, Navy is now 2-3 the last 5 years against Notre Dame.  That game is also in Maryland. Led by Keenan McReynolds, Navy has a lot of experience coming back. With OSU slow starts and ND faltering ends, Navy would be an interesting team in the new playoff system if they could knock off one of those two squads.

Texas Tech - Why a Surprise? Will battle Baylor and Oklahoma for the top spot in the Big 12.  We all know the story, the Red Raiders started 7-0 before a competitive action packed, rain filled, game with Oklahoma led to the wheels falling off. However, in Kingsbury's first year, they accomplished a lot of what the coach wanted. They were well over 500 ypg on Offense including be 2nd in the nation in passing and first in the nation in total plays per game.  The thing I actually liked about this team is that it played with a chip on its shoulder and was secretly competitive on defense through the first 7 games. It was just different than recent Tech teams had done in the past. If that carry over onto this year, (starters on each level of D come back), and they can do better than being 116th in penalties and 117th in turnover differential, they were a team no one wants to deal with. These numbers should go down if Davis Webb performs to half of all the hype he's getting preseason.

Washington State. Why a Surprise? Should battle for second place in the PAC-12 North Division. Wazzu did not really compete against their higher-ranked foes last year (except the road game game at Auburn and ranked game at USC). However, Connor Holliday is one of the many star QBs that return in the stacked position in the PAC12. He will have all his leading WRs back from a team that finished 4th in the nation in passing last year.  Should be really fun to see what legendary coach Mike Leach does with that. Even though they draw Arizona St. and Stanford on the road, they get Oregon and Washington at home and should be a spoiler for the action that happens down the stretch.

Teams that did not quite make the list but I will probably still take credit for since I put them in the article:

Louisiana – One of the most oldest, experienced teams in the NCAA. Leading QB, RBs and WRs come back from a team that went 9-4 last year.  This whole athletic department just has momentum from the name change. (See recent Basketball, Baseball and Softball seasons)

Maryland – Coming to the BIG 10 with a very experienced offense and a dual threat QB in C.J. Brown. People forget that before he was injured for the year at Florida State, they were the no. 16th team in the nation. No defense resembles FSU in the BIG 10.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

The Threat of Nothing; Reasons why the SEC can get ZERO teams in the Inaugural Playoff

For a long time, College Football fans have longed for a playoff. However, no conference dominated the BCS-era quite like the SEC, including winning 7 straight titles. Whether because of the loss of experienced upperclassmen or legendary QBs, the SEC is undoubtedly wide-open.  Quite possibly, this same conference may now be least ready to move to the playoffs. Is it possible that the SEC will have zero teams in the new playoff? Consider the following.

Alabama's Jacob Coker.
UA fans, and possibly coaches alike, are resting a lot of hope on a QB that has not started a game in college football. Unfortunately, transfer history INTO the SEC has not been good in recent history.   Recent transfer QBs that come to mind that fit the mold of being at another power conference prior to coming to the SEC would be Jeremiah Masoli (Oregon to Ole Miss), Jevan Snead (Texas to Ole Miss), Ryan Mallett (Michigan to Arkansas), and Robert Bolden (Penn State to LSU). Ryan Mallett was the only one to finish as expected, that is, as a great QB for his team. I would also argue that all of these QBs had major game experience before having a brutal SEC experience. Masoli was a 5th year graduate transfer who started at Oregon. Jevan Snead played at Texas his freshman year eventually losing the job to Case McCoy. Robert Bolden played as a frosh (including against Alabama) in 2010.With that being said, it is pretty rare that QBs transferring into the SEC has immediate success.  It is important to note that if Jacob Coker doesn't live up to the hype, Alabama is still talented enough to win big games...but they could also lose a couple of games...which would dent one of the SEC's strongest teams' case for getting into the playoffs.

*Cam Newton does not fit in my category because he played at UF (an SEC school) and battled with Tebow...and he was a freak of nature. 




It is rare for QBs who transfer from other Power Conferences to have first year success in the SEC like Ryan Mallett did.



Auburn's Schedule.

Hands down, it appears that Auburn is the most talented team in the SEC. This is one of the few times Gus has a returning QB in his system. In addition, he has experience on every side and area of the ball. However, Auburn may fall victim to a ridiculous schedule. Consider the trade from South Carolina to Tennessee from last year; a random, RANDOM, week 3 NIGHT game AT Kansas State; and a brutal 4 week stretch at the end of October and November where I think every team they play could be in the top 15 except South Alabama.  If they stay healthy and come out of this schedule with one loss, I would consider it a magical season and definitely worthy a playoff shot.

South Carolina's Schedule.

I think South Carolina is hands down the favorite to win the East. I'm actually apart of the small few that liked Dylan Thompson over Connor Shaw in this Spurrier offense because of the different dimensions Thompson gives you. See South Carolina AT Clemson 2012  Although I still think USC will win the East, like Auburn, the schedule got extremely tougher, so their percentages to go through the season unscathed goes considerably down, especially since they are trading Arkansas and Miss. State with Texas A&M and a visit to Auburn. Getting out of this schedule with only one regular season loss is a great goal especially with a possible rematch with Auburn in the title game lurking.


The Magnolia State.

I believe that positive momentum is a huge thing in COLLEGE sports and both Ole Miss and Mississippi State have it.  Ole Miss finished 8-5, (and I would argue they were in every game they loss including the loss they took to Alabama (9-0 at halftime)) beat LSU, and won their 2nd straight bowl game. Mississippi State really turned the corner in November playing both Texas A&M and Alabama close before winning their three final games.  

Beating Boise St will be key for Ole Miss as they will be probably be favored in every game they play until October (HOME game with Alabama).  Ole Miss returns their leading QB, RB, and WR (in catches) in an electric offense from last year.  The key is the defense in which most of the secondary and leading tacklers are back.  They only play 4 road games in which a young LSU squad is easily their toughest one. Besides that, in recent history, they always play LSU tough and they beat Auburn the last time Auburn came to Oxford.  They also get Bama at home.

Mississippi State has three tough road games (LSU, Bama, Ole Miss) but they are pretty spread out. They have played preseason favorite Auburn to one possession every year since 2010 (except 2012 win). They also have arguably the best QB, TE, and Safety in the league and if the running game comes along as usual (Perkins and Ballard are both in the NFL under Mullen), there is no reason why the Egg Bowl can't be the biggest rivalry game played in November. 

Both teams have no Florida, Georgia or South Carolina on their schedule; So if both coaches can step up their game getting to the SEC championship game (finally for Ole Miss) is not far fetched for either team...but possibly at someones expense.

The SEC Championship Game

Finally, once you make it through those gauntlet SEC conference schedules, you have the pleasure of playing another top 5 opponent in the SEC title game.  However, for haters in the league (like Bob Stoops), this has kind of been an indictment on the league the last couple of years. Going back to 2009, the W-L point differential  is 221-110 only the amazing 2012 Title game between UGA and Bama ended with suspense in recent years. Being that the playoff committee members are humans and not computers, we have no history on how they will judge the drubbing of a fellow conference foe. The human element can have them swayed by haters. Either way, since 2009, losing the game didn't get you into a BCS bowl other than that 2009 Florida squad.  So I am 100% sure that the loser of such game this year won't be the 4th team in the new playoff. 

At the end of the day the SEC has been on top for so many years, any team that comes out will probably get the benefit of the doubt from the Playoff Committee. However, with the brutal SEC schedule, inexperience players, Florida State, Oklahoma and Oregon all with pretty favorable schedules and Ohio State starting in the top five, there will be an uphill climb for any team that drops a game and most definitely if they drop two. Even the SEC.