This is my second year blogging about America’s real pastime, the great sport/economic industry that is college football. Just like last year, I have decided to open up the season by giving you some squads to look out for. Last year, in my opinion, I went about 70% on my surprising teams, but you can be the judge. You will not see TCU, Boise St. or Houston (one of my greatest picks last year) on MY list because frankly, they are not surprise teams. Everybody is on Houston this year and Boise is a legitimate contender this year (you will not here the term “national power” come out my mouth in describing them however). I’ll describe my apathy towards TCU in another post. Just like last year, I’ll go out on a limb to mention teams you wouldn’t expect to show you how good I am. Like every year, there will be shocking upsets and overtime thrillers that will change the landscape weekly in our great sport. Here are MY 6 teams that may do just that as well as 4 teams that ALMOST made the list (NOT IN ANY ORDER);
1. UCF – Why? UCF has enough athletes coming back on offense including 4 o-linemen and the RB Harvey coming back from an 8-5 squad. They also had the best defense in the C-USA last year. Toughest game out of Florida is a mediocre Kansas St. squad and a non-defense playing Houston squad in whom they beat last year. Only lost 2 C-USA games by 1 possession. Very EASY schedule and they have depth. Could easily win 9-10 games as well as the C-USA.
2. UCONN – Why? I think Randy Edsell is one of college football’s best coaches as far as getting players to play beyond their talent. UCONN lost 5 games by a total of 15 points last year, all to teams that were ranked at least once last year. 16 starters coming back, 8 on offense, 8 on defense. Schedule is challenging enough to get recognition from the media (Michigan, Temple) while being easy enough to skate to a 5-0 record (Tex. Southern, Buffalo) before starting Big East Play. Toughest games this year is at Michigan, the first game of the season, and at South Florida at the end of the year. Don’t be surprised if UCONN reps. The Big East this year in the BCS.
3. Washington – Why? PAC-10 is mediocre. There is no separation between teams. (Except Washington St. being one of college football’s worst programs) Steve Sarkisian is one of Pete Carroll’s disciples that had Washington off to a good start last year before fading. ESPN loves Jake Locker for some reason. He was supposed to be the West Coast version of Tebow, but he’s been more injured during his career and truthfully speaking, has done absolutely nothing noteworthy at his time at UW (except get a horrible call for excessive celebration 2 yrs. back). He must stay healthy for them to challenge for the Pac-10. They have 16 starters coming back, including 9 on offense which was pretty good last year. Pretty challenging schedule with Nebraska and USC back to back, but stealing one of those would give them confidence to challenge for the Pac-10.
4. Fresno St. – Why? Schedule. Only leaves Cali. for 2 legit games, Ole Miss, and Boise St. Interesting game with Cincy early at home. Lost two top playmakers including Ryan Mathews, but still has a veteran team on both sides of the ball. With the type of football Pat Hill likes to play, I would be shocked if Fresno didn’t win more than 8 games this year while challenging for top 3 spots in the WAC.
5. Texas A&M – Probably the most generalist pick out of this group. Why? Team has been mad young the last 2 years so no surprise that 18 players come back. Offense wasn’t the problem last year going over 30 (9) times including 39 against Will Muschamp’s Texas’s defense. Schedule is challenging enough for the media hype after some wins from writers (Arkansas, Big 12 West), yet favorable early and should be 4-0 going into the Arkansas game. Only leaves the state of Texas twice, Oklahoma St. and Kansas, 2 very winnable games. I believe Mike Sherman is going to get it done. He was an underrated coach in the NFL, and it is a make or break time frame for him this year.
6. Southern Miss – Even with Damian Fletcher finally out of Southern Miss, after gaining at least 1,000 yards for 4 seasons, So. Miss should make another run at 8 to 9 wins due to its favorable schedule and the skilled players coming back that fits its offensive style. So. Miss loss 4 games by one possession last year. The only team that beat them by more than one possession was the University of Alabama at Birmingham.
3 Teams that almost made the list:
1. Miss St. – One of the toughest teams to play against last year under first year coach Dan Mullen. They also had, in my opinion, the hardest schedule in the nation, not named Miami (Fla.) They played LSU, Florida, and GT tough and was robbed at home by Houston. The OOC schedule is lighter than last year (Houston on the road) but playing in the toughest division there has been in at least a decade (the SEC West), they would be fortunate to make a bowl this year. All of their tough games are on the road, (the aforementioned Houston game, Florida, Alabama, LSU). No Anthony Dixon, still not settled on a QB to run the system. This will be a good team though and will upset someone that sleeps on them. (I think either LSU or Arkansas). Do both and they may steal a decent bowl from one of these two as well.
2. Nevada – Was on my surprise list last year and went 8-5. OOC is easier this year, (only California at home from a BCS conference). QB Colin Kapernick is back and the Pistol is still a hard offense to solve. They have absolutely NO defense ever and I would be surprised if it’s getting better. They always play Boise tough and get them at home this year. Should battle Fresno St. for the second spot in the WAC.
3. Baylor – Also on my surprise list last year based on the stipulation that Robert Griffith stayed healthy. He tore his ACL the 3rd week in which Baylor was 2-1 at the time. (So it didn’t count, lol.) This team almost broke the non going bowl streak at Baylor as freshman two years ago and they are all Juniors now. The OOC schedule is CAKE compared to previous years with only overrated TCU as a challenging game. Only leaves the state of Texas twice this year. Baylor plays in the competitive Big 12 South but drew beautifully in terms of the 3 teams they play in the Big 12 North as they miss both Missouri and favorite Nebraska this year. They should steal some games and make a bowl and don’t be surprised if they upset Texas or Oklahoma this year.
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